Okay, but what is his batting average?
response to Michael A.M. Lerner and Ethan Hill's post The New Nostradamus
I found the article to be very interesting but I was left wondering about his predictions that never panned out. Some information on how accurate his predictions are overall would have been nice to know.
Like this article? Tell the world It's Good!
not yet rated
Read Much?
To verify the accuracy of his model, the CIA set up a kind of forecasting face-off that pit predictions from his model against those of Langley’s more traditional in-house intelligence analysts and area specialists. “We tested Bueno de Mesquita’s model on scores of issues that were conducted in real time—that is, the forecasts were made before the events actually happened,” says Stanley Feder, a former high-level CIA analyst. “We found the model to be accurate 90 percent of the time,” he wrote. Another study evaluating Bueno de Mesquita’s real-time forecasts of 21 policy decisions in the European community concluded that “the probability that the predicted outcome was what indeed occurred was an astounding 97 percent.”
Posted on October 31, 2007 — by BrianH
0 comments