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fixerdave

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01/12/08

• Softball

  Authored by Gooder - 2 votes

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  Technology

  response to  Michael A.M. Lerner and Ethan Hill's post The New Nostradamus

  Has Mesquita no students?

  I know nothing of political science but I do know a little about the scientific method. To science, it is not important that a man, such as Mesquita, can achieve good results; what is important is that other people can achieve the same results using the same method. This is conspicuously absent from the article. Has this man no students that have also made successful predictions?

  What the article shows is that there is a man that predicts things well enough to command fairly high commissions for doing so. Presumably, the people paying him have some sense of a decent success rate for them to continue paying. Some people also pay Water Douser's to locate their well-drilling equipment. This does not make it science, nor does a positive success rate. Science is based on repeatability by others.

  That Mesquita can adjust inputs to his mathematical models, metaphorically twiddling the dials until what he believes is the right answer pops out, only proves that he is somehow a political genius. It says nothing about his mathematical model, which could very well be nothing more than a fancy dousing-rod.

  Besides, even if the mathematical models worked for everyone, it would only give political actors another tool to manipulate the results. They would start gaming the game theory, so to speak.

  David...
  

  Comments (1)

  Commented on January 12, 2008 by - fixerdave