response to Michael A.M. Lerner and Ethan Hill's post The New Nostradamus
Rigour? (UK spelling, sorry!)
Commented on December 7, 2007 by - thirkej
Hi friends
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How the campaign is doing:
$1M
0 $862,800 raised
What the article doesn't tell you is any real data about how successful his predictions are, relative to chance. France passed the Mastricht treaty - OK, so he had a 1 in 2 chance of being correct whatever he predicted. Daniel Ortega would be voted out - well it was almost certain to happen sometime...
I don't think this approach couldn't be right, but without some really statistically significant track record, it's just a nice story.